Research talk:Wikipedia article creation/Work log/Monday, December 9th

Monday, December 9th

I'm trying to incorporate AfC drafts into my analysis of the survival proportion of English Wikipedia. I consider a page to be an AfC draft if it remains under Wikipedia_talk:Articles_for_creation/<title>. All drafts that were deleted or that haven't been moved to Main within 6 months of article creation are considered to be "failed". To deal with the right truncation issue, I've limited my dataset to go up until April this year.

Article & drafts survival. The monthly survival proportion is plotted for both articles and AfC drafts from the English Wikipedia.

Sadly, I don't know which pages started as drafts. That is, I wouldn't if I didn't have this fancy dataset that has a history of moves. Mwahahaha! OK. Time to get that into shape so that it will be useful. --Halfak (WMF) (talk) 21:28, 9 December 2013 (UTC)

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While I'm waiting for my move extractor, I ran some numbers on how many drafts are being arbitrarily chosen to have "failed" by me in this analysis.

> select LEFT(first_revision, 4) AS year, page.archived OR should_be_archived OR declined_submission, count(*) FROM nov13_afc_draft_status INNER JOIN nov13_page page USING(page_id, page_namespace, page_title) WHERE first_revision < "20130501" GROUP BY 1,2;
+------+------------------------------------------------------------+----------+
| year | page.archived OR should_be_archived OR declined_submission | count(*) |
+------+------------------------------------------------------------+----------+
| 2004 |                                                          1 |        1 |
| 2005 |                                                          1 |        1 |
| 2006 |                                                          0 |        1 |
| 2006 |                                                          1 |       30 |
| 2007 |                                                          0 |        1 |
| 2007 |                                                          1 |       52 |
| 2008 |                                                          0 |       12 |
| 2008 |                                                          1 |     3300 |
| 2009 |                                                          0 |       47 |
| 2009 |                                                          1 |     8720 |
| 2010 |                                                          0 |       70 |
| 2010 |                                                          1 |    11654 |
| 2011 |                                                          0 |      305 |
| 2011 |                                                          1 |    28153 |
| 2012 |                                                          0 |     1746 |
| 2012 |                                                          1 |    71779 |
| 2013 |                                                          0 |      851 |
| 2013 |                                                          1 |    24935 |
+------+------------------------------------------------------------+----------+
18 rows in set (2.46 sec)

Wow! That's better than I thought! Only 851 ambiguous drafts in 2013! --Halfak (WMF) (talk) 23:04, 9 December 2013 (UTC)