English: Graph showing forecast with 80% and 95% confidence intervals for the proportion of autocreated accounts that "survived" for the first three months where ACTRIAL was running. A "surviving editor" is someone who made edits in both the first and fifth week after registration. The proportion is calculated based on autocreated accounts editing in the first week.
The forecast uses an ARIMA(0,1,1) model with drift. The true proportion for each month is shown in red.
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